Environmental Toxicology Diary

Opposite with retrospective epidemiology, prospective epidemiology highlights the current and ongoing investigation of a specific effect observed associated with a causative agent. So this is a looking forward study to determine the relationship between a causative factor with the disease or illness.

Similar with retrospective, prospective epidemiology will take two groups of study. One group is people with disease and another is not. The difference with retrospective is that in prospective diagram of work, only the group without disease is subdivided into two groups. One that get exposed by a suspected causative agent (toxic chemicals etc), and another is not exposed. These groups will then be measured and observed the rate of individuals at the end of period of study, how many are observed with the disease and how many without the disease. The rate is determined by comparing between individuals in an exposed group and individual in a non-exposed group. The comparison way will be explained in the next post.

There are several advantages by using this kind of method. One is that more reliable and accurate information may be obtained, since we are doing a forward study, so we can adjust the parameter we would like to study and manage the confounding factor by only picking individuals who have similar condition and daily habit. Two, since more accurate information can be obtained, thus stronger association between a suspected causative agent and a disease or illness can be established, thus helping much to assist formulating the threshold level for regulation.

Although these advantages are seems to be significant, there will be a consequence with the outcome funding. One, prospective epidemiology need a lot of funding, since it require to follow time by time individuals being monitored. Two, it requires a long time just to observe apparent effect that suspected to develop during the exposure of a causative agent, this is true if the suspected causative agent is toxic chemicals. For example is cancer, the development of cancer since the exposure time of individuals take time, probably more than 5 years. Three, since this study need a long of time, there is no way we can control population object study movement. We can not prevent them of moving house, thus these people will not be counted in the final measurement.

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